The forecast
The schedule is a bet
Every published rota is a claim about next week, and claims have an accuracy that can be measured in eight weeks.
A Schedule Is a Forecast
Every published rota is a bet about next week's demand. Treating it as a plan rather than a prediction hides the thing worth measuring.
How Wrong Are You, Actually
The number almost no operation knows about itself, how to get it in eight weeks, and what to do once you have it.
What Drives Your Demand
Four or five variables explain most of the variation in most operations. Finding yours takes an afternoon and improves every forecast after it.
Forecasting Without a System
A spreadsheet and last year's data beat intuition and cost nothing. What the minimum viable forecast looks like.
The Week That Breaks the Model
Every forecast fails occasionally and badly. Planning for that case is different from improving the average, and more important.
Seasonality, Events and the Calendar
Most of what looks like unpredictable demand is on a calendar somebody could have built. Building it once removes a year of surprises.
When the Forecast Is Right and the Schedule Is Wrong
Accurate demand prediction does not produce correct staffing by itself. Four things sit between them and each can break the translation.